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Numbers don't lie, but...
I'm hard pressed to come up with a semi-mainstream sport which doesn't award victory to the side which has accumulated a higher score than that of the loosing team. This makes the analysis of the scoring in a sport a fairly easy matter since all you have to do is focus on the scoring of the loosing team, and be confident that the winning team's score will always be higher.
From whence do my figures come? Believe it or not, there was a time when the good folks at the Dallas Morning News did a pretty fair job of reporting on the weekend activities of not only American professional soccer, but basic coverage of the big money pro soccer leagues of the Northern Hemisphere. While such detail is gone today, the statistics page did include the soccer scores from the English Premier League, the Mexican First Division, the French Number One, the Italian First Division, the Scottish Premier Division, and the German Bundesliga (bless you!). Also, during the fall, they reported on a select group of college programs which are either local, or are in the conferences of which the local teams are members.
The numbers I'm throwing around basically come from years of observing these box scores. Here are a few examples of what I see each and every week...all of which indicate that soccer is a one goal game. And that one goal is the very first goal, which goes on to be the game winning goal a majority of the time.
If you think I'm being too selective in the choice of my data, I challenge you to find two consecutive weeks of professional soccer where the loosing teams average a single (1.00) goal scored. That's my definition of a single goal game. I can make that challenge simply because I've yet to see one such week, let alone two.
The examples from my "Visualize Higher Scoring Outdoor Soccer" page provide an adequate derivation for a basic truth in professional soccer which I like to call Kimbro's Fundamental Theorem of Soccer Scoring:
"The more important the match, the lower the score, and by extension...the more likely a shutout."
This is the fact. For half the soccer games played at the pro and college level, the first point scored will win the game simply because the opponent will not score a single goal. The first goal scored is far and away the most important goal in outdoor soccer. The players know it. The officials know it. The coaches know it. The parents of goalkeepers know it. The parents of strikers surely know it because experience has taught them that -- not only are they loath to ever directly ask:
"Did you score a goal today?"
-- they've learned (what with a 50% chance of a shut out) that they can't even come right out and inquire:
"Did your team score a goal today?"
Also, when examining the following scans of newspaper clippings, take note of how often the word "at" precedes the victor's name. This pattern forms the basis for Kimbro's Second Theorem of Soccer Scoring:
"As attendance nears capacity, the home field offers such an advantage that the visiting team must logically play [conservatively] for the draw."
But then again, we need only look back to World Cup '02 and the surprise success of both Japan and South Korea, or Portugal's surprise victories at home over arch rival Spain, England, The Netherlands, and Russia in UEFA Euro 2004, or even then unheralded France's defensive domination (2 total goals allowed) in World Cup '98, for proof that the home field advantage is indeed a constant of considerable importance in the formula for soccer supremacy.
Now let's buckle down and extract some meaning out of the weekly stats. I've decided to cease posting as of April 16, 2003, and I'll make my last posting an example which paints professional soccer scoring in a relatively favorable light:
Dallas Morning News, Sunday & Monday April 13 (p. 16C) & 14 (p. 16C), 2003
67 total outdoor games reported (5 MLS, 2 WUSA, plus 60 European & Mexican Pro)
29 of 67 (43%) are shutouts in regulation (including 6 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
21 of 67 (21%) are draws in regulation (including 6 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for April 13 & 14, 2003:
65% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 48 points / 67 games = 0.71 point
Now let's consider an example from a few days earlier representing the opposite end of the spectrum.
Dallas Morning News, Thursday & Friday April 3 (p. 21C) & 4 (p. 18C), 2003
23 total outdoor games reported (6 International Exhibition, and 17 European Championship Qualifying)
17 of 23 (74%) are shutouts in regulation (including 3 [that's 13%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
5 of 23 (22%) are draws in regulation (including 3 [that's 13%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for April 3 & 4, 2003:
82% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 7 points / 23 games = 0.30 point
Worthy of note in this sample is that it allows us to compare and contrast scoring in the absolutely meaningless "international friendly" and "exhibition" matches with scoring in the extremely important "European Championship Qualifying" matches.
European Champ. Qualifying: 2.41 goals per match
Friendly Exhibition Matches: 2.17 goal per match
Consideration of this does cloud the conventional belief that the coaches alone are the ones responsible for soccer's defensive mindset. I can't help but feel that the 'friendly matches' could be higher scoring if the players had any real interest in providing more entertaining play...if only in these unimportant matches.
This is particularly true in that Friendly held in Switzerland. Think about it now. It's a friendly held in a neutral site, and still the score is 1-0. This speaks volumes about the true state of soccer today.
But soccer's scoring reality is somewhere in between. Let's consider the results from earlier in the week.
Dallas Morning News, Sunday & Monday March 30 (p. 23B) & 31 (p. 20C), 2003
54 total outdoor games reported (9 Mexican Pro, 5 International Exhibition, and 40 Internat'l Qualifying)
34 of 54 (63%) are shutouts in regulation (including 10 [that's 18%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
17 of 54 (31%) are draws in regulation (including 10 [that's 18%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for March 30 & 31, 2003:
76% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 31 points / 54 games = 0.58 point
But just a couple weeks activity does not a paint the complete picture, so let's keep analyzing:
Dallas Morning News, Sunday & Monday March 16 (p. 20B) & 17 (p. 12B), 2003
51 total outdoor games reported (45 European Pro and 6 Women's International Matches)
34 of 51 (67%) are shutouts in regulation (including 7 [that's 13%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
13 of 51 (25%) are draws in regulation (including 7 [that's 13%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for March 16 & 17, 2003:
78% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 22 points / 51 games = 0.43 point
And yes, even two weeks activity isn't enough to draw any conclusions, so let's check out the previous week:
Dallas Morning News, Sunday & Monday March 9 (p. 19B) & 10 (p. 14B), 2003
50 total outdoor games reported (49 European & Mexican Pro Matches plus 1 U-17 W/C Qualifier)
29 of 50 (58%) are shutouts in regulation (including 6 [that's 12%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
18 of 50 (36%) are draws in regulation (including 6 [that's 12%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for March 9 & 10, 2003:
82% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 26 points / 50 games = 0.52 point
Now take a look at the previous week:
Dallas Morning News, Sunday & Monday March 2 (p. 16B) & 3 (p. 14B), 2003
51 total outdoor games reported (all European & Mexican Pro matches)
26 of 51 (51%) are shutouts in regulation (including 3 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
12 of 51 (24%) are draws in regulation (including 3 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for March 2 & 3, 2003:
69% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 35 points / 51 games = 0.69 point
For those who have already spotted the trends, you may wish to take a little detour to my
pages where I compare soccer scoring to scoring in NFL football and scoring in hockey.
But let me clue you in here...there's no comparison.
If you'd like, let's continue on and study the stat's from a couple weeks earlier:
Dallas Morning News, Sunday & Monday February 16 (p. 17B) & 17 (p. 16B), 2003
57 total outdoor games reported (53 European & Mexican Pro and 4 International)
32 of 57 (56%) are shutouts in regulation (including 4 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
11 of 57 (19%) are draws in regulation (including 4 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for Feb. 16 & 17, 2003:
68% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 31 points / 57 games = 0.54 point
Now let's look at the prior week's activity.
Dallas Morning News, Sunday & Monday February 9 (p. 14B) & 10 (p. 12B), 2003
62 total outdoor games reported (59 European & Mexican Pro and 3 Men's International "Friendlies")
24 of 62 (39%) are shutouts in regulation (including 5 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
22 of 62 (35%) are draws in regulation (including 5 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for Feb. 9 & 10, 2003:
66% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 46 points / 62 games = 0.74 point
But please, read on.
Dallas Morning News, Sunday & Monday January 12 (p. 19B) & 13 (p. 12B), 2003
42 total outdoor games reported (41 European & Mexican Pro and 1 Women's International Friendly)
22 of 42 (52%) are shutouts in regulation (including 10 [that's 24%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
19 of 42 (45%) are draws in regulation (including 10 [that's 24%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for Jan. 12 & 13, 2003:
73.8% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 25 points / 42 games = 0.60 point
Also of interest, that same weekend the scores of various local Dallas/Fort Worth high school tournaments
were published (scans are on my page "DFW_HS"), and the statistics are in line with the adults:
219 total high school games reported (105 boys and 114 girls)
135 of 219 (61.6%) are shutouts in regulation (including 3 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
15 of 219 (7%) are draws in regulation (including 3 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for DFW High School Soccer Matches reported on Jan. 10, 11, & 12, 2003:
67% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 117 points / 219 games = 0.54 point
Getting back to the big boys and big girls, how were things last year?
Dallas Morning News, Sunday & Monday December 15 (p. 14B) & 16 (p. 17B & 18B), 2002
56 total outdoor games reported (55 European & Mexican Pro Matches and
1 College Match--NCAA Tournament Div. 1 Men's Final)
29 of 56 (52%) are shutouts in regulation (including 4 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
14 of 56 (25%) are draws in regulation (including 4 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for Dec. 15 & 16, 2002:
70% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 29 points / 56 games = 0.52 point
How about a look at the numbers from a week before that:
Dallas Morning News, Sunday December 8, 2002 (p. 20B & 28B)
68 total outdoor games reported (65 European Pro and 3 College--NCAA Men's Tournament)
31 of 68 (46%) are shutouts in regulation (including 1 scoreless 0-0 draw in regulation)
19 of 68 (28%) are draws in regulation (including 1 scoreless 0-0 draw in regulation)
Bottom line for Dec. 8, 2002:
72% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 47 points / 68 games = 0.69 point
Looking a couple of weeks back, note the 5-3 score of the Manchester U. v. Newcastle
game. What a game that must have been. On average, a high scoring game with such a
narrow goal differential now occurs way less than 1% of the time:
Dallas Morning News, Sunday & Monday November 24 (p. 18B & 20B) & 25 (p. 14B) 2002
110 total outdoor games reported (63 European & Mexican Pro and 47 College--NCAA & NAIA Tournament)
55 of 110 (50%) are shutouts in regulation (including 7 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
29 of 110 (26%) are draws in regulation (including 7 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for Nov. 24 & 25, 2002:
67% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 77 points / 110 games = 0.70 point
And were things much different a week earlier? Check out the 5-3 scores of the Werden Bremen v.
FC Kaiserslautem and the South New Hampshire v. East Stroudsburg matches. Again, rare proof
that 5-3 matches now occur, but on average way less than 1% of the time.
Dallas Morning News, Sunday & Monday November 17 (p. 3B,12B,22B) & 18 (p. 12B,14B) 2002
106 total outdoor games reported (55 European & Mexican Pro and 51 College--primarily NCAA Tournament)
53 of 106 (50%) are shutouts in regulation (including 11 [10%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
22 of 106 (21%) are draws in regulation (including 11 [10%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for Nov. 17 & 18, 2002:
60% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or soccer draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 65 points / 106 games = 0.61 point
So how was it a couple of months earlier?
Dallas Morning News, Monday September 23, 2002, pages 14B
41 total outdoor games reported (16 college and 25 international pro)
22 of 41 (54%) are shutouts in regulation (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
10 of 41 (24%) are draws in regulation (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws)
Bottom line for 9-23-2002:
73% of games finished regulation as either shut outs and/or draws in soccer
and the average score of the losing team was: 26 points / 41 games = 0.63 point
So how was it a month earlier?
Dallas Morning News, Monday August 19, 2002, pages 16B & 17B
44 total outdoor games reported (5 MLS, 2 WUSA, and 37 international pro)
20 of 44 (45%) are shutouts (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
11 of 44 (25%) are draws in regulation (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws)
Bottom line for 8-19-2002:
66% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 33 points / 44 games = 0.75 point
So how was it a bit earlier in the year?
Dallas Morning News, Monday January 21, 2002, page 10B
29 total outdoor games reported (22 pro and 7 international [Gold Cup & African Cup])
13 of 29 (45%) are shutouts (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
11 of 29 (38%) are draws in regulation (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws)
Bottom line for 1-21-2002:
76% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 19 points / 29 games = 0.66 point
Now let's look back to year before last!
Dallas Morning News, Sunday November 25, 2001, page14B
46 total outdoor games reported (24 pro and 22 college)
26 of 46 (57%) are shutouts (including 8 [17%] scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
14 of 46 (30%) are draws in regulation (including 8 [17%] scoreless 0-0 draws)
Bottom line for 11-25-2001:
70% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 24 points / 46 games = 0.52 point
For another recent example:
Dallas Morning News, Sunday September 9, 2001, pages 20B & 21B
46 total outdoor games reported (35 pro, 2 international and 9 college)
26 of 46 (57%) are shutouts (including 5 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
18 of 46 (39%) are draws in regulation (including 5 scoreless 0-0 draws)
Bottom line for 9-9-2001:
85% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 24 points / 46 games = 0.52 point
For another example:
Dallas Morning News, Sunday January 7, 2001, page 20B
48 total outdoor games reported (47 pro and 1 international, 0 college)
24 of 48 (50%) are shutouts (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
11 of 48 (23%) are draws in regulation (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws)
Bottom line for 1-7-2001:
69% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 38 points / 48 games = 0.79 point
Was the situation similar in 2000? You bet...
Dallas Morning News, Sunday December 3, 2000, page 22B
36 total outdoor games reported (32 pro and 4 college)
22 of 36 (61%) are shutouts (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
4 of 36 (11%) are draws in regulation (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws)
Bottom line for 12-3-00:
67% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 18 points / 36 games = 0.50 point
How about a week before that:
Dallas Morning News, Monday November 27, 2000, page 14B
31 total outdoor games reported (21 pro and 10 college)
16 of 31 (52%) are shutouts (including 3 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
4 of 31 (13%) are draws in regulation (including 3 scoreless 0-0 draws)
Bottom line for 11-27-00:
55% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 16 points / 31 games = 0.52 point
Wondering about last decade? Let's take a look...
Dallas Morning News, Monday December 13, 1999, pages 9B & 10B
29 total outdoor games reported (28 pro and 1 college)
13 of 29 (44%) are shutouts (including 1 scoreless 0-0 draw)
11of 29 (37%) are draws in regulation (including 1 scoreless 0-0 draw)
Bottom line for 12-13-99:
79% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 21 points / 29 games = 0.72 point
Here's another example which looks at both pro and college matches:
Dallas Morning News, Monday November 29, 1999, page 12B
41 total outdoor games reported (28 pro and 13 college)
20 of 41 (49%) are shutouts (including 1 scoreless 0-0 draw)
7of 41 (17%) are draws in regulation (including 1 scoreless 0-0 draw)
Bottom line for 11-29-99:
63% of games finished regulation as either shut outs and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 29 points / 41 games = 0.71 point
However, on the very same page are the scores from the '99 Sony Texas Cup, a young women's tournament held here in the Dallas area by The Sting Soccer Club featuring the nation's best girls select teams, with the results listed at right:
45 outdoor girl's select games reported (all were either semi-final or final games, so only the best teams were involved)
33 of 45 (73%) are shutouts (including 1 scoreless 0-0 draw in regulation)
2 of 45 (4%) are draws in regulation (including 1 scoreless 0-0 draw in regulation)
Bottom line for these 'club soccer' matches:
76% of games finished regulation as shut outs &/or draws
& the average score of the losing team was: 13 points / 45 games = 0.29 point
Here's an example which looks only at pro contests:
Dallas Morning News, Monday November 22, 1999, page 10B
32 total outdoor games reported (32 pro and 0 college)
16 of 32 (50%) are shutouts (including 1 scoreless 0-0 draw)
5 of 32 (15%) are draws in regulation (including 1 scoreless 0-0 draw)
Bottom line for 11-22-99:
65% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 20 points / 32 games = 0.62 point
Next, from the previous week, here's a look at only college games:
Dallas Morning News, Monday November 15, 1999, page 5B
41 total outdoor games reported (41 college and 0 pro) most of which were NCAA tournament games
28 of 41 (68%) are shutouts (including 5 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
7 of 41 (17%) are draws in regulation (including 5 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for 11-15-99:
73% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 14 points / 41 games = 0.34 point
How about the week prior to that:
Dallas Morning News, Monday November 8, 1999, page 16B
43 total outdoor games reported (34 pro and 9 college)
21 of 43 (49%) are shutouts (including 6 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
13 of 43 (30%) are draws in regulation (including 6 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for 11-8-99:
65% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 26 points / 43 games = 0.60 point
OK, need more? Let's look at the week before that:
Dallas Morning News, Sunday October 31, 1999, page 18B
67 total outdoor games reported (60 pro and 7 college)
31 of 67 (46%) are shutouts (including 6 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
22 of 67 ( 33%) are draws in regulation (including 6 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for 10-31-1999:
70% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 44 points / 67 games = 0.66 point
Now let's skip back a couple weeks for another "all-pro" example:
Dallas Morning News, Monday October 18, 1999, page 16B
28 total outdoor games reported (28 pro and 0 college)
19 of 28 (67%) are shutouts (including 4 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
7 of 28 ( 25%) are draws in regulation (including 4 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for 10-18-1999:
78.57% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 13 points / 28 games = 0.46 point
Let's keep going back for more examples:
Dallas Morning News, Thursday September 9, 1999, p. 12B
29 total outdoor games reported (22 pro and 7 college)
17 of 29 (58%) are shutouts (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
5 of 29 (17%) are draws in regulation (including 2 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for 9-9-1999:
68% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
and the average score of the losing team was: 20 points / 29 games = 0.68 point
And finally let's consider a prior weekend's action:
Dallas Morning News, Monday August 30, 1999, p. 10B
53 total outdoor games reported (46 pro and 7 college)
26 of 53 (49%) are shutouts (including 3 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
12 of 53 (23%) are draws in regulation (including 3 scoreless 0-0 draws in regulation)
Bottom line for 8-30-1999:
66% of games finished regulation as either shutouts and/or draws
& the average score of the losing team was: 33 points / 53 games = 0.62 point
Finally, no study of soccer scoring would be complete without a 'goals per game' figure which is used by the other 99.99999999% of the known soccer world. Let's look to the magazine 'Soccer America' for this figure, as the following by soccer journalist Will Kuhns from his article "MLS Mid-Season Review" provides you with that goal per game number, plus the illumination that I'm not the only homo sapien who's given the low goal scoring reality a little thought:
The casual American sports fan really doesn't know all this scoring detail, but he or she does know that soccer is simply not satisfying enough to watch very often, and this low scoring reality is the reason why. It's the only reason. And it will continue to be the reason, as long as there are so many more entertaining and satisfying alternatives.
Thankfully, since choosing to document the soccer scores by posting scans of the newspaper clippings {soon to be referred to as works of art from American soccer's pre-neo-offense era (aka: the lean years)}, I've noticed that the steady stream of hate mail has trickled off to nothing. I was beginning to understand how Charles Darwin must have felt after publishing "Origin of the Species." OK, since the joke here is so obvious, allow me:
"...yeah Mike, instead of the Scopes Monkey Trial, you'd be in the Dope's Soccer Trial..."
Hardy, Har, Har,
'Multitudinus' Mike Kimbro
To return, best to hit the BACK ARROW BUTTON,
or Visualize High Scoring Outdoor Soccer
