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Thoughts on College Football

With the bowl season commencing in a few days I thought I would give the BCS mess--rhyme but not editorialization is intended--a few words.

The four elements of the BCS formula--polls, computers, number of losses and strength of schedule--deserve comment. Polls are not what the NCAA uses in determining the field for March Madness. Pollsters need the helping hand of equivalent competition that only a post-season phase can provide, but polls can play a confirming role as explained below. Computers were supposed to be our tool when they were invented. It's turning into the opposite. One of the seven computer rankings utilized by the BCS has Ohio State two places ahead of Michigan. Need I say more? Number of losses is what got TCU into the top ten for a time before the Horned Frogs lost to Southern Mississippi in the game that could have vaulted them into a major bowl appearance. Strength of schedule is fine if you are 7-4 or 8-3 and being compared against another 7-4 or 8-3 team. When you are 11-0 or 10-1 and have played in a major conference, strength of schedule does little for me. Strength of schedule and the computers are what dropped Southern Cal beneath both Oklahoma and LSU.

So we see that none of the factors used by the BCS are that impressive. Maybe college football, steeped in myth and ruled by a specialization--there are offense, defense and various special teams units--not seen in any other team sport, is not conducive to a national tournament. Maybe a bowl ladder, consisting of a field of 16 chosen by a selection committee like in March Madness and culminating in not one but two "final" bowl games followed by a final poll is a preferable way to end the season. There would always be sour grapes tossed from some direction. The team that loses in overtime in the first or second round to the team that ultimately is chosen no. 1 would surely cry and get a decent hearing from me. You cannot get perfection, but you can get improvement.

The selection committee as a starting point rings true for me. The human factor has to be not only 25 percent of a formula--that is just a quantitative role--but also the last word in any relevant rankings. That would be an important qualitative role. Home games, away games, injuries, lineup changes and late-season surges can all get their deserved weight in the formula if human beings perform the finishing touches. Values should be assigned to every result for every team and they need not be objectively assigned. (See the J-Ratings.) Should Michigan suffer for having played at Oregon and lost? Of course. The whole season counts; otherwise, the season has no integrity. Should Michigan gain even more than it lost at Oregon for beating Ohio State? Of course. Football is a human game, it needs no sanitization through computers, and it should be governed by its own species. That would be a fair start.

Can Newcomers Make a Difference for NBA Teams?

The Historical Perspective

With the NBA season just having begun, it is no trouble at all to get lost in the forest of personnel changes. Most of the names you know, but so many affiliations change.

What would help is some kind of system for testing the probability of positive effect these changes have on teams' chances for reversal of fortune.

The standing principle I have always worked with is that you are not good unless your big people are good enough. Sure, there are exceptions--Michael Jordan in his prime could make almost any team instantly credible, but you get the idea.

History is a friend here. It shows us what changes have caused dramatic upswings for teams in the past. Some arbitrariness creeps into such an analysis, but I've selected as the test class all teams that have followed a season of missing the playoffs by either winning a best-of-seven playoff series or taking it to the seventh game before losing. I searched through NBA history for such teams and have listed their frontcourt personnel additions starting in 1958-59. Wherever I wasn't so awed by the frontcourt addition(s), I also included the major backcourt addition(s) and/or noted other significant factors. Here it goes:

1958-59: Minneapolis Lakers, Elgin Baylor.

1963-64: San Francisco, Nate Thurmond.

1966-67: San Francisco, Clyde Lee, Jeff Mullins (L.A. Lakers had lost Leroy Ellis and Rudy LaRusso suffered injury. Jerry West missed some games with injury).

1969-70: Milwaukee, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bob Dandridge. 1971-72: Boston, Tom Sanders (enabling team to cut minutes of Steve Kuberski and Hank Finkel; Philadelphia traded Archie Clark for Fred Carter, traded Jim Washington for Bill Bridges, and Bailey Howell retired.)

1973-74: Detroit, George Trapp (Lakers dropped 13 wins after departures of Wilt Chamberlain, Jim McMillian and Keith Erickson).

1974-75: Golden State, Jamaal Wilkes, Clifford Ray.

1975-76: Phoenix, Alvan Adams, Gar Heard; Cleveland, Campy Russell, Nate Thurmond, Austin Carr (healthier, played more games than previous season).

1976-77: Portland, Maurice Lucas; L. A. Lakers, Kermit Washington, Don Chaney, Earl Tatum, Bo Lamar, Johnny Neumann (Curtis Perry and Gar Heard were injured for Phoenix); Houston, Moses Malone.

1977-78: Seattle, Marvin Webster, Jack Sikma, Paul Silas, John Johnson, Wally Walker.

1979-80: Milwaukee, Bob Lanier (added late in season), Dave Meyers, Pat Cummings, Richard Washington; Boston, Larry Bird, M. L. Carr, Pete Maravich. (added late in season).

1986-87: Seattle, Dale Ellis, Alton Lister, Maurice Lucas, Nate McMillan (Calvin Natt was injured for Denver).

1988-89: Phoenix, Tom Chambers, Armon Gilliam (healthier, played more games), Kevin Johnson (Dallas lost Roy Tarpley for almost the entire season, and James Donaldson was injured for part of the season.).

1989-90: San Antonio, David Robinson, Terry Cummings, Sean Elliott, Rod Strickland (added late in season).

1991-92: Cleveland, John Williams (healthy, played more games than previous season), Mark Price (healthy, played more games), John Battle, Terrell Brandon (Jack Sikma retired for Milwaukee. Rick Mahorn left Philadelphia. Dominique Wilkins was injured for Atlanta, which also lost Doc Rivers, Spud Webb and John Battle.).

1992-93: Houston, Robert Horry, Carl Herrera (played more games, improved. Golden States suffered injuries to Chris Mullin, Sarunas Marciulionis and Billy Owens.).

1993-94: Denver, Brian Williams, Rodney Rogers, Bryant Stith (L. A. Lakers lost A. C. Green and Byron Scott, and Anthony Peeler got hurt. L. A. Clippers lost Ken Norman, Stanley Roberts and Michael Jackson, and lost John Williams to injury.).

1997-98: Indiana, Rik Smits (healthier, played more games), Chris Mullin (Detroit lost Otis Thorpe, Terry Mills and Theo Ratliff. Orlando lost Dennis Scott and Nick Anderson, and lost Penny Hardaway to injury. Washington lost Gheorghe Muresan.).

2001-02: Boston, Tony Battie (played more games), Kenny Anderson (played more games), Rodney Rogers (added late in season), Tony Delk (added late in season); New Jersey, Keith Van Horn (played more games), Jason Kidd, Todd MacCulloch, Kerry Kittles, Richard Jefferson, Jason Collins. (Miami lost Anthony Mason, Tim Hardaway and Bruce Bowen. New York lost Marcus Camby to injury, and also lost Glen Rice.).

Keep in mind that in only one of the last five seasons has there been the sort of radical displacement that we're talking about here. Also keep in mind that the drafting of younger and younger players adds an element that was missing a generation or two ago because players have upsides for their first few seasons that should be included in such analysis.

So what does all this historical perspective teach us for the current season? Golden State added Cliff Robinson and Nick Van Exel. That won't cut it, but Mike Dunleavy and Jason Richardson are improving young cubs who can be called new. Houston brought in Jim Jackson, Eric Piatkowski and Adrian Griffin. That's no better, but Yao Ming and Eddie Griffin are still kind of young. Seattle hopes Jerome James becomes an instant sensation. Hmmm...kind of doubt it. Memphis tries a combination of Tsakalidis and Outlaw...uggh. You could also look at the still young Pau Gasol as a developing or new player. The L. A. Clippers brought on Chris Kaman, a nice player but unlikely to be a quick tonic. Denver has Marcus Camby, who played very few games last season, hot rookie Carmelo Anthony, and guards Andre Miller, Earl Boykins, Jon Barry and Voshon Lenard--clearly the best additions of the non-playoff teams from the West plus Nene and Nikoloz Tskitishvili are developing youngsters. None of these additions seem to be can't-miss catalysts to a meteoric team rise.

Who is susceptible to being leapfrogged? San Antonio lost David Robinson and Stephen Jackson. Minnesota lost Rasho Nesterovic, Kendall Gill, Anthony Peeler and Marc Jackson. Dallas lost Raef LaFrentz, Nick Van Exel and Adrian Griffin. The L. A. Lakers lost Rick Fox, Robert Horry and Samaki Walker. Portland said goodby to Scottie Pippen and Arvydas Sabonis. Utah lost Karl Malone, John Stockton, Mark Jackson and Scott Padgett. Only Utah suffered the caliber of losses that could drop it from a playoff spot, and it would not be surprising if Houston passed them. The longshot could be Denver which has a fresh fullcourt component. A longshot for decline could be Minnesota whom lots of folks have tabbed as a contender.

In the East, Washington did a fairly good job adding Jared Jeffries (injured last season), Jarvis Hayes, Etan Thomas and guard Gilbert Arenas. Also, Kwame Brown isso young so treat him like new. New York hopes to regain the services of Antonio McDyess for a substantial part of the season, and also has added Keith Van Horn androokie Mike Sweetney, not a bad haul. Cleveland has one big addition in Lebron James and a newcomer who can grow in Darius Miles. Atlanta really has no new frontcourt parts. Chicago brought back storied hero Scottie Pippin, and you can count the very young Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jamal Crawford as new players considering the amount of improvement expected year to year during what would have been their college years. Miami bought in Lamar Odom, and Toronto regains Vince Carter, hurt last season, Antonio Davis, hurt for about one-third of last season, LamondMurray (ditto) and rookie Chris Bosh.

Who could be passed up? Boston lost Antoine Walker and J. R. Bremer. Detroit lost Cliff Robinson, Jon Barry and Michael Curry. Indiana lost Brad Miller, Ron Mercer and Erick Strickland. Milwaukee lost Ervin Johnson, Anthony Mason and Sam Cassell. Orlando lost Shawn Kemp, Darrell Armstrong and Jacque Vaughn. Philadelphia lost Keith Van Horn and Brian Skinner. Could Toronto, New York or Washington pass up Milwaukee? Maybe.

Contact Jay Myers at Jcard64@aol.com

Jay Myers publishes NFL Winter Reports, an evaluation of NFL rosters prior to the free agent signing period. It is purchased by NFL teams as a consultant report. He has been a guest on

radio with Jeff Aaron in Seattle, Jon Fine in New Orleans, Max Howell in Atlanta and Barry McKnight in Montgomery, AL. He also ranks the college football teams during the season, appearing regularly on Rick

Miller's "Football Tonight" program on Sportstalknow.