The NFL's Great Scoring Drought!

America's National Football League (NFL) went through a

similar scoring crisis in the 1950's.  What prompted the

evolution to it's present high scoring form?

Let's begin our discussion with a way of equating soccer scores and NFL scores.  I'm

assuming that this page is of no interest to international readers, so we'll

do the math by converting soccer scoring to American Football scores:

     1 Soccer Goal = 1 Touchdown = 6 Points in American Football

So, assuming an average Pro soccer score today of 2.00 - 0.75, the NFL

equivalent score is:   12 - 5

Image Credit: Soccer America magazine, Author: Will Kuhns

Now understand that there was a time in the history of the NFL when scoring

was almost this low.  Football had grown between 1900 and 1960, but had

failed to truly evolve during that growth.  It was essentially the same ground

oriented game it had ever been, and the attitude of the NFL's "purists" of the

day very much favored the status quo.

While it's hard to see the clean cut Johnny Unitas painted as a "Rebel", the NFL purists of the

'50's felt strongly that Unitas was flat out ruining the game of football when he began

throwing 20 passes a game on a fairly regular basis. 

But I can't give full credit to Unitas for the NFL's evolution.  Even with his success,

the majority of the NFL teams clung to their running roots.  Low scores of 17-10 and

14-7 were the rule of the day, and 35-28 games were flat out unheard of.

So what inspired the NFL's evolution to a higher scoring game?  The change came when

the game went from being player oriented to being fan oriented.  What accounted for this

quantum leap in the NFL management's thinking:  competition!

Credit the presence of the newly formed American Football League (AFL) with the evolution

and even revolution of American football in the '60's.  As the "purists" loyally stayed with their

old NFL favorites, the AFL management was free to rise above the status quo to embrace

a single mission:

     FILL THE STADIUMS WITH FANS

It didn't take long for the AFL to recognize that the teams which favored the passing game

were enjoying the most success at the gate.  So the AFL adapted rules changes which

encouraged the air attack, opening the game up to scoring levels not seen in a competitive

NFL game.

And the casual American sports fans loved it.  Folks who had never cared much for football

were finding something to get excited about in the AFL's free wheeling approach to the

game and the higher scoring it produced.

Only in the light of the AFL's success was the NFL able to read the writing on the wall,

prompting a change of focus from the players to the fans.  The integration of the AFL's

passing friendly rules followed, and finally the merger with the AFL to form the NFL of today.

An NFL which enjoys regular battles where the loosing team routinely score 20 points, and

winning teams score into the 30's and 40's on a regular basis.  Even the Super Bowls have

finished in an average score of:    30.44 - 14.56.

And we have the AFL, and Johnny Unitas, to thank for it all.

Moral:    Success in the American entertainment industry is all about pleasing the fans!

If you feel that soccer and NFL football are alike in term of scoring, it's worth your time to take a look at this little analysis of the games played on ABC's Monday Night Football by the Dallas Cowboys.

Too Weird:  All 5 of the highest scoring matches were won by the away team!

Now look over this list of lowest scoring matches.  Do you see a single 3-0 or 6-0 or 7-0 or even 9-0 score in this study of the 63 games played by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football?  Not one.  The average score of these 5 lowest scoring matches is 12.4 - 5.8, which translates to a 2-1 soccer score.  This is higher than the current 2.67 goals per game average suffered by the top professional soccer leagues in the world today.  So save your e-mails which maintain that soccer and NFL football are at all alike in terms of scoring.

To explain why all five of the lowest-scoring games were against the Redskins, understand that the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins are both in the Eastern Division of the National Football Conference of the NFL, and as such must play each other twice yearly during the regular season, and sometimes again during the playoffs.  This reinforces the belief that:

   "Familiarity breeds conservatism."

But more importantly, consider that Washington and Dallas together account for about 8 Superbowl championships during the Monday Night Football era, so this isn't an example of 2 teams which are just so weak that they couldn't score if the goals were empty.

Image Credit:  Fort Worth Star-Telegram, September 27, 2004 p. 18D, from the article "Monday Memories" by sportswriter David Thomas.

So, how low can it go?  Surely Monday Night Football has had it's share of  0-0 matches over the decades! Right?  Not even close...

Now let's consider football scoring from another historical perspective.

In the Fort Worth Star-Telegram article "The Fab Five", sportswriter Don Bowman studies the records of the NFL's 5 teams which achieved 18 game winning streaks, the record at the time.  These were teams which were finely tuned, and were not only winning the NFL Championship during their streak, these juggernauts were beating everyone in sight.

Understanding that my philosophy is that points scored by the loosing team is a far more accurate indicator of the entertainment value of a sports match than total points scored, born from the fact that I'd rather watch a 35-31 game than a 66-0 game, so let's take a look at the average score of the loosing teams in order to appreciate how scoring in the NFL has increased over the decades.

140 points / 18 games = 7.8 points/game in 1934

176 / 18 = 9.8 points in 1942

222 / 18 = 12.3 points in 1973

248 / 18 = 13.8 points in 1990

312 / 18 = 17.3 points in 1998

Understand that the point of this little page is to compare professional soccer scoring to NFL scoring.  The soccer fan knows that 50% of soccer matches are settled by the first goal scored, because roughly 50% of today's soccer matches are shut outs.  Now consider that with the loosing team scoring 17.3 points per game, this last set of games by the Denver Broncos weren't settled with the first score or even the second score, as the winning team must score at least 3 touchdowns when the loosing teams are averaging 17.3 points per game.

And this in a sport where the defense suffers a greater beating as it spends more time on the field, as opposed to soccer where typically the defense is relatively more rested as the match nears it's end.

While we're at it, note that even during these winning streaks, the total numbers of shut outs was 11, or 12% of the 90 games played.  Then note that there's only 1 total shutout during the two most recent winning streaks.  That's only 3% of those 36 games played in the 1990's.

Also, the following is an perfect example of box scores from NFL football.  Lots of detail, and note that you don't see an official's name or nationality anywhere:

While we're at it, let's see if the college football fan is subjected to low scoring matches.

Since I feel the bigger problem with soccer is the lack of scoring in the tournaments, particularly in the quarters, semis, and finals, let's take a look at American college footballs equivalent...what we call bowl games.  Fans are paying big money for travel and tickets to see their team play another quality opponent.  Important here is that there's about a 90% chance that the two teams haven't faced each other all year.  At right is a sample of that season ending action:

Now granted, that's just one day in college football, and these are all top 15% teams at that.  Let's study college scoring over a few months to insure that this type of entertaining offensive oriented play isn't the exception.

Working in a reality where the first score seldom wins a match, the mindset of American Football is freer to accept your opponent's offensive successes (or your team's defensive failures)...even on a large scale.  In the little image to the left we can see that this is also true in college football.  The actual number of points allowed was 38.8, so converting to a soccer score equivalent we have 38.8 / 6 = 6.46 goals per game, and this from a major college team with a winning heritage.  I intend no disrespect to Coach Carl Torbush, as it's understood that the Aggies were in a rebuilding phase, and went on a butt kicking spree immediately following the loss to Utah in the season opener.  Hey, that's why the front page of the October 17, 2004 edition of the Fort Worth Star Telegram featured the following at the top right corner of the front page:

Then the following week we see the Aggies make it six in a row with an overtime victory against Big 12 rival University of Colorado, as is proudly indicated in the following image from the Sunday edition of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

So the Texas A & M Aggies are rewarded for their efforts with a #16 national ranking.  But the following week we receive confirmation that all good things must come to an end, courtesy of that most underused weapon...the 2-point conversion:

Then, just a week after being brought back to Earth by the Big 12's bottom bound Bears of Baylor, to College Station came the mighty Sooners for what was predicted to be a knee drop to the groin of the Aggies' season.  But the boys from Texas A & M University put on a mighty show, leading better than half the game:

And alas, a week later the good times picked right back up as the Aggies handled Texas Tech...in overtime:

So, do you still think that soccer and American football

are alike in terms of scoring?

By the way, if you're about to e-mail me with sentiments that college football isn't as significant as NFL football, let's compare the attendance figures from the above statistics:

New England Patiots at Kansas City Chiefs:  68,436

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions:  61,505

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys:  63,616

Oklahoma Sooners at Texas A & M Aggies:  81,125

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns:  83,181

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas A & M Aggies:  82,278

As an interesting aside, as we are considering attendance for football games in the fall of 2004, let's take a look at which college women's soccer programs have the highest home game attendance during that period:

#1. Texas A & M University = 2,791 / match

#2. University of North Carolina = 2,459 / match

That's indeed excellent support when considered alongside the World Soccer magazine article section at right, which puts attendance for Brazil's top league matches at just over 7,000 during that same fall of 2004.

Image Credit: World Soccer magazine, Author: Brian Homewood

Returning to American Football, while it may be the farm league for the pro game, Division 1 college football is every bit the entertainment equivalent of NFL football...while only benefiting from half the hype.  And make no mistake here, in my mind that hype machine, NFL Films, is truly in a league with Dreamworks, Warner Brothers, Tri Star, or any other entertainment company.  The key word here is entertainment.

Mike "An Aggie's Dad" Kimbro

To return to the previous page, it's best to simply hit the back arrow button above,

or you can hit the following:    Visualize High Scoring Outdoor Soccer

PS-Talk about lead changes, the following between #2 ranked UT and unranked TAMU-CS says it all.

And note the attendance that autumn day was 86,617.

PSS - And here's something a little more recent, from The Dallas Morning News Sunday November 12, 2006 edition, at left, and USA Today's November 13, 2006 edition at right:

Comparing these two images should be so revealing, since the football games at left are all conference matches between opponents who know each other's every move to the point that the head coaches know what their counterparts had for breakfast.

This should be an environment which favors the defense.

Conversely, the first and second rounds of the NCAA playoff represent the best chance for match-ups between teams which haven't played each other all year...if ever.

This should be an environment which favors the offense. Yet all 5 of the 0-0 scoreless draws which went to PK's were between teams which hadn't met each other all year.  Verification can be had via the following links and fun facts:

• Winthrop's Schedule    4 of Winthrop's last 7 matches went into overtime!
• Duke's Schedule          That was Duke's 2nd consecutive 0-0 draw!
• Florida's Schedule       3 of Florida's last 7 matches were draws!
• Clemson's Schedule     3 of Clemson's last 5 matches were draws...two were 0-0!
• Rutger's Schedule        3 of Rutger's last 8 matches were 0-0 draws!

Now, with all the "Friday Night Lights" mania which is sweeping the nation, how about a little something which documents the scoring situation of Texas high school football:

But I know what you're thinking:  "another isolated example."

Sure Colleyville Heritage High School puts a very good team on the field on most Autumn Friday evenings.  But the big dog in this area of Texas plays in their incredible stadium just 2 miles down the road from where I reside.  This is the same stadium where the MLS's FC Dallas (the then Dallas Burn) played their soccer during their first move out to the suburbs.

This many times Texas State Champion team goes by the name:

The Southlake Carroll Dragons

Ranked nationally as high as #1 during the past 3 years, Carroll's Coach Dodge embraces an entertaining, high production offense which is simply hard to resist.  Look over the following evidence of what high school football is all about, not only at the highest levels of the game, but in the championship match of a major tournament:

Ranked nationally as high as #1 during the past 3 years, Carroll's Coach Dodge embraces an entertaining, high production offense which is simply hard to resist.  Look over this evidence of what high school football is all about, not only at the highest levels of the game, but in the championship match of a major tournament of the highest levels of the game.

Now let's just focus on the 5 championship games in the graphic at right.  It's in the championship match that the essence of winning is revealed.  Not that the average score of the defeated side in those five championship matches is:

20.4 points

Anyway you look at it, the winning team must score 3 touchdowns and 3 extra points to beat 20.4 points.

Oh yeah.  Now let's do the math on the number of shut outs.  This is a team which won the state championship during 4 of 5 years represented here, so you'd expect them to have a defense which hold opponents scoreless at least half the time...right.

No way, during these 80 matches, there are only 8 shut-outs.  That's only 10%.

So here's proof that, even at the high school level, American Football isn't about the total and abject offensive failure of one or both teams.  And that's why it's so much fun to watch.

Now let's compare this reality to some Texas State High School tournament soccer action:

What I wish I had was the attendance figures for American high school football games, so I could compare those with attendance at high school "football" matches throughout the world.

So anyway, at any level, you simple cannot compare scoring in soccer to scoring in football.

You get the picture, so I think I'll stop beating this dead horse.